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IMF-Driven Mandatory VAT for Ukrainian Entrepreneurs: Experts Warn of Risks, Shadow Economy Growth

  • IMF requires Ukraine to mandate VAT registration for sole proprietors (FOPs) with annual income over 1 million UAH, affecting 170,000–250,000 FOPs, mainly in IT, consulting, and professional services.
  • This reform could triple the tax burden for many, leading to higher prices, business closures, increased shadow economy activity, and emigration of skilled professionals.
  • Experts predict a third of affected FOPs will register and raise prices, a quarter will close businesses, and the rest will go underground or emigrate.
  • The government expects 15–20 billion UAH in extra revenue, but actual losses from tax evasion, business closures, and enforcement costs could result in a net budget loss of 12–20 billion UAH annually.
  • The shadow economy is expected to grow by 3–5 percentage points, and the overall impact may harm rather than help the budget.

Source: news.dtkt.ua

Note that this post was (partially) written with the help of AI. It is always useful to review the original source material, and where needed to obtain (local) advice from a specialist.



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