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Rising Deficit Prompts Russia to Consider 2% VAT Increase

  • Russia is considering raising its standard VAT from 20% to 22% to address a widening budget deficit driven by record military spending. Exemptions may apply to essential goods, with a decision expected alongside the 2026 draft budget.

  • The proposed VAT hike could generate roughly 1 trillion rubles annually, about 0.5% of GDP, providing short-term fiscal relief. Economists warn exemptions for socially important goods may have limited impact on protecting households from higher prices.

  • The 2025 proposal echoes the 2019 VAT increase from 18% to 20%, which initially sparked inflation but strengthened state revenues. VAT remains a reliable fiscal tool to sustain budget stability amid spiraling defense costs.

Source: vatcalc.com



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