- Economic Impact
- If fully implemented, Trump’s tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 1.0%, with market income falling by 1.5% in 2026.
- The average tax increase per household would be $1,254 in 2025 and $1,588 in 2026—unless the IEEPA tariffs are blocked, in which case the impact would be significantly smaller.
- Revenue Effects
- Tariffs would raise $2.3 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade on a conventional basis, or $1.5 trillion on a dynamic basis (accounting for economic drag).
- If the IEEPA tariffs are permanently enjoined, revenue drops to $574 billion over 10 years.
- Retaliation and Trade Disruption
- Countries like China, Canada, and the EU have imposed or announced retaliatory tariffs affecting $330 billion of U.S. exports, further reducing GDP by 0.2%.
- The tariffs affect up to 71% of U.S. goods imports, making them the largest tax hike since 1993.
Source Tax Foundation
